Al sharqi shipping Supply chain and logistics market update report July 2026

July 9, 2026

Logistics & Supply Chain Market Update – July 2026

Fuel Market Update: Crude Prices Ease, but Fuel Costs Remain Elevated

Crude Prices Decline as Risks Ease

Brent crude fell below pre-conflict levels, reaching USD 72.49 per barrel on 3 July 2026, down 3.5% week over week and 0.7% below the February baseline. WTI stood at USD 69.11 per barrel.

Lower prices reflect reduced geopolitical concerns and improved supply expectations following US-Iran developments. However, supply risks remain due to damaged infrastructure, low inventories, and limited market buffers.

Diesel Prices Remain Elevated

Diesel prices have not matched crude’s decline due to delayed market adjustments and the removal of fuel support measures.

The EU average diesel price reached EUR 1.766 per litre, 8.1% above the February baseline. Germany and Spain ended fuel relief measures on 30 June, increasing pressure on transport operators. The Netherlands remains the highest-priced EU market at EUR 2.114 per litre, while Malta, Czechia, and Spain remain among the lower-cost markets.

US diesel prices remain high at USD 1.282 per litre, around 25.5% above baseline levels, with refining constraints and tight inventories slowing the decline. Other markets, including China, India, Türkiye, Brazil, and Mexico, continue facing higher fuel costs due to taxes, currencies, and local pricing policies.

Policy Changes Widen Regional Cost Gaps

Fuel support changes are creating larger price differences between countries. Germany, Spain, and Italy have reduced relief measures, while Sweden and Norway continue temporary support.

Transport operators may reduce costs through flexible routing and refueling strategies. Fuel surcharge agreements should be reviewed, as crude-linked formulas may not reflect actual diesel costs after policy changes.

Gas Prices Add Further Pressure

European gas prices remain elevated, with Dutch TTF reaching EUR 44.22 per MWh on 3 July, 38.4% above the February baseline. Lower LNG availability, Asian demand, and storage rebuilding needs continue supporting prices.

Higher gas costs are affecting LNG fleets and industrial inputs such as AdBlue. Overall, lower crude prices provide limited relief, while diesel policies and energy market pressures continue keeping transport costs high.

July 2026 Global Ocean Freight Market Update

Key
++	Strong Increase
+	Moderate Increase
=	No Change
–	Moderate Decline
—	Strong Decline

Outbound

Middle East – Europe

Inbound ocean freight remains stable but faces congestion, Middle East uncertainty, and capacity pressure on key trade lanes.

Capacity – (=)

Rate – (+)

Middle East – Latin America

Latin America inbound ocean freight is supported by strong demand but faces peak season pressure, weather risks, and tighter capacity.

Capacity – (-)

Rate – (+)

Middle East – North America

North America inbound ocean freight faces strong demand, tighter capacity, and peak season pressure across major import corridors.

Capacity – (-)

Rate – (++)

Middle East – Asia

Asia-Pacific inbound ocean freight remains resilient but faces routing disruptions, early peak season pressure, and changing supply chain patterns.

Capacity – (=)

Rate – (+)

Inbound

Asia – Middle East

Asia-Pacific outbound ocean freight shows strong export activity but faces geopolitical risks, peak season pressure, and shifting network requirements.

Capacity: (=)

Rate: (+)

Europe – Middle East

Outbound ocean freight faces operational disruptions, schedule uncertainty, and congestion risks, while connectivity improvements support reliability.

Capacity – (=)

Rate – (+)

Latin America – Middle East

Latin America outbound ocean freight remains stable with improving connectivity, though peak demand and weather risks may pressure capacity.

Capacity – (=)

Rate – (+)

North America – Middle East

North America outbound ocean freight remains stable but sees selective capacity tightness and seasonal schedule adjustments.

Capacity – (=)

Rate – (+)

These shifting shipping routes in UAE and across connecting corridors underline why staying close to real-time rate and capacity data matters for anyone booking cargo this quarter, whether through ocean freight services or air freight services.

July 2026 Air Freight Market Overview

Demand: Global air cargo volumes rose 4% year over year in May 2026, driven by semiconductor and AI infrastructure demand.

Capacity: Global air cargo capacity increased 3% in June 2026, led by Asia, with freighter growth offsetting lower belly capacity.

News: Global air freight spot rates rose 1% weekly to USD 3.75/kg, remaining elevated due to capacity and cost pressures.

The Middle East and Air Carriers

Air cargo capacity recovered to around 75% to 85% of pre-crisis levels, but operational inefficiencies and Gulf hub congestion continued to limit effective supply. Air freight rates remained significantly elevated, staying 35% to 60% above last year’s levels in May 2026. For businesses relying on air cargo Dubai, this congestion is translating directly into higher landed costs on time-sensitive shipments.

Asia

Asia air freight demand strengthened in May 2026, with shipments to North America rising 19% year over year. Despite a 5% capacity increase, supply remained tight. Freight rates stayed elevated, ranging 30% to 50% higher than the same period in 2025.

America

Air cargo capacity remained stable across Asia but faced limitations on North America and Europe routes. New airline services improved Latin American connectivity, while the North American market stabilized. Major trade lanes remained balanced, with some localized constraints from Asia to the US.

Europe

Middle East disruptions and longer shipping routes continue to pressure available capacity and operational flexibility. However, freight rates are stabilizing as capacity and volumes recover. Manufacturing shifts and electric vehicle investments are driving stronger inbound shipment growth across Hungary and Poland.

July 2026 Shipping Insights for the UAE

A run of surcharge and schedule updates from major carriers is reshaping costs for shipping companies in Dubai and across the UAE this month:

CMA CGM will apply a USD 60 tracking fee on UAE-to-Sohar merchant haulage exports. Read More

Hapag-Lloyd will apply a USD 100 emergency surcharge for containers handled at Khorfakkan Commercial Terminal. Read More

Hapag-Lloyd introduces War Risk Surcharge for Gulf cargo amid Strait of Hormuz disruptions. Read More

Maersk resets FI3 Asia-India service schedule by blanking vessel due to Gulf delays. Read More

Maersk provides temporary free time extensions and storage solutions amid Strait of Hormuz disruptions. Read More

CMA CGM introduces USD 60 monitoring fee for UAE-Sohar merchant haulage export shipments. Read More

CMA CGM restricts Jeddah merchant haulage bookings to foreign destinations due to congestion controls. Read More

CMA CGM updates German port transshipment compliance requirements under new customs data matching rules. Read More

Maersk adjusts fuel surcharge for Southern Africa and Islands effective 1 July 2026. Read More

Global Factory Output – Overview

The World Container Index (WCI) surged by 9% and reached $4,530 per 40ft container, a move that’s already feeding into the General Cargo Rate (GCR) benchmarks used across many freight forwarding companies in UAE.

The World Container Index (WCI) surged by 9% and reached $4,530 per 40ft container.

United States of America (USA)

In June, all seven US sectors recorded business activity growth, the broadest expansion since November 2025. Basic Materials led with its strongest output rise in over four years, followed by Consumer Goods. Healthcare and Industrials slowed, while Consumer Services, Financials, and Technology returned to growth, though modestly.

United Kingdom (UK)

S&P Global reported a slowdown in the UK economy during Q2 2026, with services activity declining for a second month amid weak demand, high costs, and uncertainty from Middle East tensions. Inflation pressures eased as input price growth slowed, while business confidence improved slightly but remained weaker than earlier in the year.

China

China’s services sector maintained strong growth in June 2026, with the PMI easing slightly to 54.1 but remaining above average. New business continued expanding; export demand strengthened, employment improved, and inflation pressures moderated. Composite PMI also stayed positive, indicating resilient domestic activity and improving external demand supporting continued expansion.

United Arab Emirates (UAE)

S&P Global noted a sharp employment decline as firms faced weak demand and rising costs. Although June showed slight improvements in business growth and slower inflation, companies focused on cost control. Easing geopolitical tensions may support recovery and supply chain improvements, but cautious clients and reduced staffing suggest a gradual rebound.