October 10, 2025

October 2025 Supply Chain & Logistics Overview

Logistics Across the IMEA Region – October 2025 Highlights

As Q4 begins, the IMEA region showcases a dynamic logistics landscape — with West Africa’s port recovery, India’s rail expansion, and shifting U.S. trade policies shaping cross-border movement and supply chain resilience.

West Africa: Abidjan Rebounds While Conakry Faces Severe Delays

Conakry (Guinea): Vessel waiting times have extended to ~30 days due to high yard density, weekly dredging, and short election-related pauses.
Abidjan (Côte d’Ivoire): Operations have significantly improved with new cranes, RTGs, and tug capacity reducing waits to 0–1 day as the cocoa season begins.

India: Rail Freight Expansion Driving Predictability and Lower Emissions

India’s integrated ocean–rail programme is gaining traction with 155 train trips and 10,000+ containers moved to date.
Plans to expand to 18 rakes by 2026 align with India’s ambition for a 45% rail modal share by 2030, offering better schedule reliability and reduced carbon output.

Nepal: Border Logistics Back to Normal After Temporary Halt

A five-day road transport suspension (8–12 September) affected India–Nepal cargo flows amid local unrest.
Rail services to ICD Birganj continued with reduced frequency and have now fully resumed normal operations.

U.S. Trade Policy Shifts Impacting IMEA Exporters

The de minimis duty exemption (≤USD 800) ended on 29 August, requiring full customs entries for all U.S.-bound low-value shipments.
Section 232 tariffs on steel and aluminium remain at 50%, with new probes into medical tech, robotics, and industrial machinery under review.

New Product-Specific Tariffs Introduced

From 14 October 2025, U.S. import duties increase:

Timber/Lumber: +10%
Kitchen Cabinets & Wooden Furniture: +25%, rising to 50% on 1 January 2026.
Exporters are advised to update pricing models and review supply contracts accordingly.

AGOA Expiry Creates Uncertainty for African Exporters

The African Growth and Opportunity Act (AGOA) expired on 30 September 2025, pausing duty-free access for sub-Saharan exports.
Until renewal, MFN tariffs apply, potentially increasing costs for African exporters.

Key Takeaway

The IMEA region demonstrates strong resilience and modernization — West Africa’s port recovery, India’s rail expansion, and evolving U.S. tariff structures are reshaping trade. Shippers must adapt fast and plan strategically to stay competitive in Q4 2025.

October 2025 Ocean Freight Trends & Insights

Key
++	Strong Increase
+	Moderate Increase
=	No Change
–	Moderate Decline
—	Strong Decline

Outbound

Middle East – Asia

Asia’s outbound ocean freight remains stable and reliable, supported by the Gemini network’s high schedule performance and balanced demand, despite minor weather-related disruptions and seasonal adjustments.

Capacity – (=)

Rate – (=)

Middle East – Europe

Europe’s inbound ocean freight faces moderate rate increases and slightly reduced capacity due to Golden Week disruptions, rail congestion, and digital clearance transitions impacting cargo flow efficiency.

Capacity – (-)

Rate – (+)

Middle East – Latin America

Latin America’s inbound ocean freight shows moderate rate increases and stable capacity, constrained by port congestion, weather disruptions, and rising inland logistics pressure, particularly in Brazil and Central America.

Capacity – (=)

Rate – (+)

Middle East – North America

North America’s inbound ocean freight from Asia remains stable, with moderate rate increases and adequate capacity, as Golden Week disruptions and Southeast Asian sourcing shifts shape demand patterns.

Capacity – (=/-)

Rate – (+)

Inbound

Asia – Middle East

Asia’s outbound ocean freight remains strong and stable, supported by robust export demand and the Gemini network’s reliability, with temporary Golden Week capacity tightening and slight rate increases.

Capacity: (=)

Rate: (+)

North America – Middle East

North America’s outbound ocean freight remains stable and reliable, with service optimizations, expanded weekly coverage, and efficient transit times, particularly supporting Intra-Americas trade and Peru’s fruit exports.

Capacity – (+)

Rate – (=)

Europe – Middle East

Europe’s outbound ocean freight remains stable, with steady rates and improving capacity supported by tariff cuts, strong transatlantic demand, and no major service disruptions.

Capacity – (=/+)

Rate – (=)

Latin America – Middle East

Latin America’s outbound ocean freight shows moderate rate increases and stable-to-tight capacity, driven by reefer season demand, port congestion, and service realignments across key trade lanes.

Capacity – (=/+)

Rate – (+)

Global Air Freight Outlook – October 2025 Highlights

Demand: Air cargo volumes rose 4% year-on-year in August, showing steady but slower growth than July, driven by ex-AP, Intra-AP, and Europe-AP routes. However, Q4 2025 faces pressure from capacity limits, higher costs, congestion, tariffs, and global slowdown risks.

Capacity: While passenger bellyhold capacity offers partial relief, it hasn’t fully offset overall declines. The Asia–Europe corridor remains strong and strategic, with double-digit capacity growth since March, making Europe the only region with consistent year-on-year growth in 2025.

News: Global freighter fleet growth remains tight, rising under 1% annually through 2030 due to Boeing 777-8F delays and a slow Airbus A350F rollout, limiting capacity. Meanwhile, the EU Regulation (EU) 2025/920, effective September 1, 2025, enforces stricter air cargo security and data requirements.

The Middle East and Air Carriers

Strong demand persists, driven by specialized cargo, e-commerce growth, and logistics infrastructure investment. However, U.S. tariffs on South African goods strain exporters, while seasonal agricultural exports across Africa help balance and sustain overall market activity.

Asia

Tech NPI demand remains steady but moderate, while e-commerce giants use dedicated charters to ease capacity strain. Asia–Europe routes are set to outperform Asia–U.S., where tariffs and de minimis removal curb volumes. Carriers adjust capacity to sustain rate stability.

America

India–U.S. air cargo volumes fell sharply after tariffs rose from 25% to 50% in August, reversing earlier growth. Combined with China-to-AP market shifts and global trade volatility, this has made the peak season highly unpredictable and atypical.

Europe

European airlines are cutting China routes amid high costs and Russia detours, allowing Chinese carriers to gain market share. The EU may suspend parts of the EU–Israel Agreement, potentially raising export costs and disrupting air freight, especially in agriculture, tech, and high-value sectors.

October 2025 UAE Shipping Trends & Insights

Maersk revised terminal handling charges from Abu Dhabi to global destinations, effective October 1, 2025. Read More

Cargo movements between Jebel Ali and Port Sudan are now permitted, while other UAE ports remain restricted. Read More

Maersk introduced a new Equipment Positioning Service – Import (Inland) charge for 40′ High Dry containers, effective September 9, 2025. Read More

Dubai Customs announced phased implementation of a 12-digit HS Code system, becoming mandatory from February 1, 2026. Read More

Italy’s new law cuts free loading/unloading time to 1.5 hours and doubles overtime to €100/hour, effective September 15, 2025. Find more information here: Link 1, Link 2

Maersk introduced an Inland Cancellation Fee (Import) for World to Mauritius shipments, effective October 1–17, 2025. Read More

A Crisis Management, Security & Emergency Response Masterclass will be held 17–20 November 2025 at Dusit Thani Dubai. Read More

Ocean Network Express introduced a Late Document Surcharge applicable across all UAE trade lanes, effective until further notice. Read More

Maersk announced a Fuel Surcharge adjustment for Southern Africa and Islands (SAI), effective October 2025. Read More

Global Factory Output – Overview

The Drewry World Container Index has decreased by 5% per 40ft container and reached $1,669.

United States of America (USA)

US manufacturing grew for the fourth consecutive month in September but lost momentum as new orders slowed and inventories rose. Firms increased output using pre-tariff stockpiles, risking future declines. Tariff-related supply delays may further disrupt production and raise prices despite easing price pressures from discounting excess stock.

United Kingdom (UK)

UK manufacturing weakened further in September as new orders, production, and exports declined amid high costs and weak sentiment. Job cuts and reduced spending continued, though slower cost inflation and lean inventories offer hope for recovery if trade uncertainties ease and interest rate cuts materialize.

China

China’s manufacturing PMI rose to 51.2 in September, marking broad-based improvement as demand, production, and export orders grew. Purchasing activity hit a yearly high, and confidence strengthened, though rising input costs and falling output prices pressured profits, while job losses eased amid renewed order growth.

United Arab Emirates (UAE)

The UAE PMI rose to 54.2 in September, signaling recovery in non-oil business activity after July’s dip. Over 30% of firms reported higher new orders, boosting domestic sales. However, competition restrained pricing and purchasing, and backlogs rose slightly, showing modest pressure.

Tags: Update