Key Trends & Global Shipping, and Logistics

September 10, 2025

Key Trends & Insights in Global Shipping, and Logistics – September 2025

UAE’s CEPA Initiative: Strengthening Global Trade Hub Status

The Comprehensive Economic Partnership Agreement (CEPA) initiative is a strategic move by the UAE to enhance its global trade relations and diversify its economy. Contributing over Dh135 billion to the UAE’s non-oil trade, the initiative strengthens economic partnerships by reducing tariffs, eliminating barriers, and fostering collaboration across key sectors.

The UAE’s geographic advantage allows it to connect Asia, Europe, and Africa, making it a prime global trade hub.

Key Progress So Far:

28 countries have signed CEPAs, with 7 new agreements in 2025, including with Malaysia, New Zealand, Kenya, and Ukraine.
Trade agreements with India, Israel, Turkey, and Indonesia have already boosted sectors like technology, renewable energy, and agriculture.
The UAE-New Zealand CEPA, effective from August 2025, aims to grow bilateral trade to $5 billion by 2032.

Impact on Future Trade

The CEPA initiative is transforming the UAE into a key economic player globally, fostering stronger trade ties and creating opportunities in emerging markets.

Bilateral Trade Growth

The UAE-India CEPA aims to raise bilateral trade to $100 billion in five years, enhancing technology, agriculture, and services.
The UAE-Israel CEPA has opened doors for collaboration in technology and tourism, with a target of $10 billion in trade by 2030.

Diversified Economic Growth

The UAE targets $1.1 trillion in non-oil trade by 2031.
Renewable energy, healthcare, logistics, and the digital economy are key sectors for growth under CEPA.

The CEPA initiative enhances the UAE’s global integration, strengthening its competitiveness by attracting foreign investments and creating business opportunities. The agreements promote a sustainable, diversified economy, reducing the UAE’s reliance on oil revenues.

September 2025 Ocean Freight Trends & Insights

Key
++	Strong Increase
+	Moderate Increase
=	No Change
–	Moderate Decline
—	Strong Decline

Outbound

Middle East – Asia

Asia-Pacific’s ocean freight faces tight capacity, and rate increases due to global trade shifts, equipment imbalances, and rerouting, with moderate decline on some routes.

Capacity – (-)

Rate – (+)

Middle East – Europe

Inbound operations face moderate disruptions at Antwerp, diversions in Genoa, and new connections at Milazzo, with tight capacity.

Capacity – (-)

Rate – (=)

Middle East – Latin America

Inbound operations in Latin America are facing moderate declines in both rate and capacity due to weather-related delays and terminal congestion.

Capacity – (-)

Rate – (-)

Middle East – North America

The Transpacific market is experiencing reduced shipments and tight capacity, especially to the Pacific Northwest, with declining demand and shifting trade patterns.

Capacity – (-)

Rate – (-)

Inbound

Asia – Middle East

Outbound from Asia, specifically to Europe, the capacity is expected to remain tight with moderate rate increases.

Capacity: (-)

Rate: (+)

North America – Middle East

Asia-Pacific’s outbound to North America faces tight space, with peak season volumes and perishable cargo driving early booking demand.

Capacity – (-)

Rate – (+)

Europe – Middle East

Outbound operations see enhanced connectivity with new services, peak season surcharges due to infrastructure issues, and growing demand for cold chain logistics in response to ecommerce and fresh produce requirements.

Capacity – (-)

Rate – (+)

Latin America – Middle East

ECSA and Intra-Americas services are adjusting due to suspensions, surcharges, and new shuttle rotations, with peak season surcharges impacting trade.

Capacity – (-)

Rate – (+)

Key Air Freight Developments – September 2025

Demand: Demand remains steady, driven by key sectors like semiconductors, high-tech, and e-commerce. Low-value parcel demand continues to rise, despite a slowdown in China’s industrial output.

Capacity: Air cargo space increased by 4% year-on-year, with strong connectivity at major hubs like Shanghai, Hong Kong, and Singapore ensuring flexibility during peak season and disruptions.

News: Rates have softened in Far East Asia and Central Asia, with moderate stability expected. However, space limitations and fuel surcharges may cause rate fluctuations during peak periods.

The Middle East and Air Carriers

Air freight in 2025 shows continued growth, with strong demand for time-sensitive cargo like perishables, pharmaceuticals, and high-value goods. Nairobi’s role as a key air cargo hub in Africa is expanding, with increased capacity and specialized services for faster shipments to Europe, the Middle East, and beyond.

Asia

Air freight demand in Asia Pacific remains stable, driven by sectors like semiconductors and e-commerce. Capacity increased by 4%, but rates softened, especially on Far East and West Asia routes. De minimis shipments continue to rise, impacting global air cargo traffic.

America

As tariff uncertainty stabilizes, many importers are adjusting strategies by pulling inventory forward or testing new vendors. LCL offers flexibility for smaller, more frequent shipments, reducing costs compared to air freight and providing greater supply chain control.

Europe

Stabilized summer belly hold capacity helped moderate Europe-bound rates, while transatlantic rates remained 20% higher YoY. Europe-Asia rates slightly declined. Weak European industrial demand, with the Eurozone PMI below 50, suggests continued softness in air cargo for industrial goods.

September 2025 UAE Shipping Trends & Insights

e2open’s upcoming INTTRA releases include features like Ocean Schedules+, improved Dangerous Goods classification, and UAE MPCI support. Read More

dnata Cargo is enhancing weight capture with automated notifications for discrepancies. Airlines and agents must submit contact details.

The U.S. and EU have agreed on a 15% tariff across most EU-origin goods, with certain exceptions. Read More

The U.S. has finalized a 15% tariff on Japanese imports, including automobiles and auto parts. Read More

Indonesian exports to the U.S. will face a 19% tariff, while U.S. exports to Indonesia will enter duty-free. Read More

Effective August 29, 2025, all imports will be subject to duties and tariffs, ending the de minimis exemption. Read More

A 50% tariff on select Brazilian-origin products will be imposed starting August 1, 2025, due to a national emergency. Read More

The U.S. will apply a 50% ad valorem tariff on semi-finished copper imports starting August 1, 2025. Read More

New tariffs under the Reciprocal Tariff Framework will apply starting August 7, 2025, addressing trade imbalances. Read More

UAE has suspended sailing permits and prohibited cargo movement to/from Port Sudan, with enforcement in several emirates. Read More

Starting September 15, 2025, Abu Dhabi will revise Export Terminal Handling Charges for dry, reefer, hazardous, and OOG shipments. Read More

Maersk will phase out the AMEX service in October 2025, replacing it with a Europe-based transshipment model for improved reliability. Read More

Maersk updated customers on the Equipment Positioning Service (POI) for imports to Zambia, with two attached advisories: Amendment and Implementation.

Maersk is introducing a Triangulation Fee, effective September 1, 2025, for handling triangulation arrangements, with seasonal charges of USD 60 (low season) and USD 120 (peak season).

Vessels at Jebel Ali Terminals must comply with edge protection safety procedures, with crew responsibility for non-compliance and potential suspension of operations. Read More

Global Factory Output – Overview

The Drewry’s World Container Index has reduced to $2,119 per 40ft container after a 6% decrease.

United States of America (USA)

US manufacturing saw strong growth over the summer, with production expanding at its fastest pace since early 2022. Hiring increased in August to meet rising orders and work backlogs. The sector is expected to boost the US economy in Q3, partly driven by inventory building due to concerns over price rises and supply issues, particularly related to tariffs. These cost increases are being passed on to consumers through higher factory gate prices, raising concerns about potential impacts on consumer inflation.

United Kingdom (UK)

UK manufacturing showed resilience despite global uncertainties, but new orders dropped sharply in August, with both domestic and overseas demand falling. Job cuts continued for the tenth month. Manufacturers are concerned that potential government policies, like tax increases, could hurt competitiveness, making the upcoming Budget crucial for business confidence.

China

China’s Manufacturing PMI rose to a five-month high of 50.5 in August, signaling an improvement in manufacturing conditions. While output and new orders increased, export orders remained weak, and domestic demand stayed soft. Input prices rose, leading to higher output prices after an eight-month decline. Despite some recovery, profit trends remain under pressure. The rebound is patchy, and its sustainability depends on whether exports stabilize, and domestic demand strengthens.

United Arab Emirates (UAE)

Sales growth in the UAE’s non-oil private sector slowed for the fourth consecutive month in August, with the new orders index at its lowest since mid-2021. Demand weakened, leading to reduced input purchases and reliance on work backlogs. While purchase price inflation eased, wage inflation rose due to healthy recruitment and cost-of-living pressures. Selling prices also increased, potentially causing concern for consumers.

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